[ Ref. Roger Bryan in 160122, Bremond Musical Boxes

> I recently acquired the Bremond music box that appeared in an episode
> of the TV series "Blacklist."  It has six bells and plays eight airs.

Nancy Fratti was very wise to say "enjoy the box for what it is"
because answering "how many bell boxes were made" is virtually, if not
absolutely, impossible.  It is a natural question because we would all
like to know more than just "who made it".

How many musical boxes were made is a necessary first step to finding
out when a particular type of box was made, such as the bell box.  That
question can be answered with some degree of accuracy.  The clue lies
buried within the dating charts that HAV (Anthony) Bulleid so carefully
crafted right up to his death in 2009.

I had the privilege of working with Anthony and Ted Brown for many
years.  Ted suggested that the tune sheets first published in the MBSI
Journal by his close friend and colleague Anthony should be published
in book form.  MBSI granted him permission for this and the subsequent
three supplements.  At Anthony's request, I edited and published his
last "Tune Sheet Book Supplement 3" in which he updated his tune sheets
and added a date chart for Karrer.

Anthony was getting old and he knew he was beginning to lose
concentration.  He asked me to continue with his work.  I was too busy
working with Ted Brown on other society publications but agreed to team
up with an American member who took the lead in tune sheet research.

We worked co-operatively on tune sheets from about 2008 and continued
after Anthony's death in 2009 up to 2013.  Most of these were published
in the MBSI journal.  It was Bulleid's research that provided me with
a firm base for estimating the total number of cylinder musical boxes
ever made.

Without going too far into the business of making predictions based
on very little information, there are many modern tools used by
statisticians and mathematicians.  One has to be careful of the motive
because so much of this statistical work is distorted for other
purposes.

British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli coined the phrase, "There are
three kinds of lies: lies, d*mn*d lies, and statistics."  It was rather
a cynical view if taken as said but what he really meant was the misuse
of statistics for some hidden objective.  Not so with Anthony Bulleid.

Predictive tools get better when they are tested in the progress of
time.  Anthony's dating Charts have proven to be so accurate that they
have stood that test in all but a few cases.  Even then possible errors
were barely a year or so out of estimate.  Yet, if one studies the basis
of his research (published in his books and in his regular feature,
"Oddments") it is a truly amazing result.  Sometimes only two or three
"firm fixes" were available for him to predict the rate of production
and the total lifetime output of a particular maker.

Thus I calculated the total production of all Swiss musical boxes
based on his charts for the makers he considered to be actual makers
and not agents.  Each chart has an estimated start and end date.
Serial numbers are thought to be in a continuous consecutive series.
Summating this data gives that vital clue as to how many were made.

Of course, one has to be careful because thousands of small movements
were never included but, nevertheless, for the cylinder boxes it is
a good start.  That prediction is not for this posting, though, but
appears in my book, "The Music Makers of Switzerland", sponsored by
AMBC (the Association of Musical Box Collectors, Chairman Ted Brown).

What I can say is that there is also some very good statistical
evidence that can predict another related question: "When did makers
start to produce certain types of musical box, including bell boxes?"

I was given access to a very large private database, the largest
proportion of which was Nicoles.  If one assumes that all makers tend
to follow the same market trends then production by Nicole might tally
with that of other makers.  There is some evidence for this

Nicole and Brémond were both located within a "stone's throw" of each
other in Geneva.  Roger Bryan's Brémond is serial 12224.  This equates
with one of the three Brémond date lines of Bulleid's dating chart,
namely line AB, as 1872.

Referring back to Nicole data, the first recorded Nicole 6-air hidden
drum & bell musical boxes appears in 1854 but they seem to fade quickly
after about 1862.  After that the Nicole listings are less clear, just
denoting bells and other accoutrements such a castanets, so these could
be hidden or in view.  The last recorded hidden bells musical box by
Nicole is serial 40875, circa 1865.

Reference to bell boxes continue up to and no doubt beyond the last
serial number 44199, circa 1869.  These appear regularly from about
1864 to 1880 as 6-, 8- and 12-air versions.  The 12-air types are
almost exclusively the two-per-turn variety.  This series also has
a few 6-, 8-and 12-air movements with just the addition of bells.
The question is, does the pattern for Nicole shadow that of Brémond?

Unfortunately, the private register of musical boxes clearly states
hidden bell boxes by name but does not use the term "bells in view".
The only source of help is from Bulleid's works.  He illustrated some
"bells in view" musical boxes such as Grossclaude (one dated 1870) who
is known to have exhibited with other makers at that date including
Brémond and Langdorff.  That "pins down" the same approximate date as
Roger Bryan's bell box.

The Nicole listings record the earliest hidden bells musical box as a
key-wind, circa 1855 but Bulleid wrote that hidden bells appeared about
1850 or somewhat earlier:

  "They (the bells) came in view about 1860 in tremendous variety of
  quantity and quality; but even the very best ones lacked the finesse
  of the hidden bell type where the use of two or more strikers per
  bell produced special effects ... and was one of the reasons why they
  continued to be made for at least ten years after they came out of
  hiding ... for example, Brémond was making boxes with bells in sight
  at serial 6702 (circa 1861) but was making hidden bells at serial
  12584 (circa 1872)"[*].

In hidden bell boxes (described only as Bell boxes on their tune
sheets) each bell striker is attached directly to the comb tooth, often
with two strikers per bell.  This gave a precise action and capability
of fast repeated strikes.  Musical arrangements were mostly intended
for bells to be an integral part of the music.

Bells in view (a description that was used on tune sheets) had links,
pivots and roller bearings at each end of the linkage.  This made the
action possibly less precise and needed much greater care in setting
up.  Repeat actions tended to be slower and less accurate.  Most had
the option of turning the bells on or off.

Returning again to Roger Bryan's question: How many were made by
Brémond.  All we can say is that in the hidden and "bells in view" eras
he made about 670 boxes per year of all types.  Nicole made 900 per
year, a very significant proportion of their output in the mid-1860s
being bell boxes.  The best answer seems to be "Quite a Lot!"

Paul Bellamy
bellamypaul@btinternet.com.geentroep

* Bulleid: Cylinder Musical Box Technology

 [ A discussion on different makers of musical boxes with bells
 [ http://www.mmdigest.com/Attachments/16/01/30/160130_153259_bell%20boxes.doc