Hi Everyone,  It's been interesting reading the different opinions
about the future market of our mechanical treasures.

I started selling music boxes in 1972.  It was before the Internet
(doesn't that make you feel ancient?!) and when the interest was just
starting to return for collecting these wonderful machines.  There was
definite interest from all age groups, especially the 'middle class'
collectors.  A Style 11 double comb 15" Regina was selling for a going
price of $2500, to give an example of pricing.

When the Japanese stock market boomed in the mid-late 1980s it gave
the whole musical instrument market a shot in the arm as demand soared
and prices escalated accordingly (the same 15" Regina then sold for
$5,000).  Then came 911 and the economic problems of the early 2000s.
eBay also happened.  What once was considered rare and scarce was
popping up all over the Internet.

Along with the Internet and the economic problems of the world came
a new generation of young people who never heard of a 45-rpm record,
let alone a music box or reproducing piano.  They were happy to have
an input plug in their ear and 'never be out of touch' with anything
but reality.

They had no interest in the machines their fathers or grandfathers had.
As a result, when collectors died or had to downsize, their items
became available to a market with fewer collectors and more items like
theirs, hence the demand goes down, the availability is easy and
plentiful, and the prices go down.

People who bought instruments in the 1980 to 2000 years paid close to
double what the people in the 1970-80s did, and people started buying
for 'investment' -- a bad idea in any collectible, including stocks.
Prices in any 'investment' field always fluctuate; they can't always
keep rising!

I hear people telling of how they lost one-third to one-half (or more)
of their stock portfolio in the early 2000s, but not in a complaining
way, just as a matter of course.  They were used to seeing the market
fluctuate.  But, if a dealer tells someone he can now get $2500 for the
box he paid $5000 for in the 1980-90s, the owners think they're getting
cheated of their 'investment'.  Antiques are no different than stocks:
their value will go up and down according to demand and supply.

If the next world money power (China?) comes over here to buy
instruments, then prices will start to go up again.  If they don't,
the prices will continue to stay static, as they are now, or go down
even further.  We'll be back in the 1930 to 1970s, when people wanted
the 'new technology' of radios and stereos, just as today's youth
wants their iPods and tablets.

There will always be people looking for machines; it's just that the
numbers have gone down tremendously.  Prices will continue fluctuate.
There are definitely fewer restorers; sad, but true.  But there are
also some new people who love repairing these machines, who call and
ask for advice on how to do things.  Hopefully they'll continue with
the work.

When I ran my 'Cylinder Music Box Restoration School' in 1986-1996
we had 236 students go through it from all over the world.  From that
pool, only three or four continued with the work and now about two
still restore boxes.  But, we're all getting older and slowing down
a bit and there are still only a few people, just like before, to do
restoration work.

One of the reasons for the lack of restorers, even in the 'prime-time'
of selling, is that many people simply didn't want to pay what it would
cost to restore a given machine.  They'd pay their car mechanic
$80 per hour to have a computer tell the mechanic what was wrong, but
they'd balk if a restorer charged $40 per hour.  You couldn't support
a family on what you could bring in if you were a restorer, unless you
had a cushion of money to work from or had a second job.

I'm been asked many times 'when is the market going to go up again?'
I don't have a crystal ball, but I can honestly say it's probably not
going to happen in my lifetime (I'm 67).

The other question most frequently asked is "When should I sell my stuff?
Should I wait for upswing in the market?"  My answer is usually to tell
them sell the items when you need to.  Waiting for the 'upswing' is not
realistic -- things might go down more.

I've found that even in these economic times, I have no trouble placing
good boxes; there are still people calling looking for the 'not so
expensive' boxes; there are still people wanting their box restored;
there are still people in their 60s calling saying they've always
wanted a music box and have saved up enough to get one now; their very
first box!  That always makes me smile -- to sell someone their very
first music box!

So yes, the prices are down.  No, I don't believe they'll be going up
in the near future.  Enjoy what you have, and when you need to sell
things, find someone you trust to sell them for you if you can't do it
yourself.  Take the current fair-market price and be happy that there
is a new custodian out there to care for your treasures.

I know not everyone will agree with me but that's okay.  It's just my
opinion after dealing in music boxes for 40+ years!

Nancy Fratti - Nancy Fratti Music Boxes, Since 1968
Canastota, New York, USA
http://www.nancyfrattimusicboxes.com/