Despite my having never been a dealer in mechanical musical instruments,
I have my own thoughts on Mr. McElhone's comments on the declining
market that seems to be the case today.  I think it has a lot more than
just current economic conditions, although it I do believe that is
definitely a factor.

Another factor I think has contributed to the decline in prices is the
reduction in the amount of what I will call "speculators" in the market
that were buying/selling these instruments more as an investment for
prospective future financial gain, than due to any real interest in
their musical or historical value.  Those folks helped drive prices up,
and now that they are getting out of the market (for whatever reasons)
few folks are now willing to buy mechanical instruments for purely
financial reasons.

Thus I believe that, for many instruments, the high-water mark of
prices was artificially higher than it would ever have reached if the
only people involved in the sales of these instruments were those whose
interest was solely for the music, novelty, appreciation of this
incredible vintage technology, and the history involved.

But, that being said, even without speculators, I still believe that
one of the (if not the) biggest obstacles to maintaining a healthy
market for mechanical music instruments is the lack of qualified
restorers, particularly a restorer that is nearby an owner, or
potential owners, house.  This is highly skilled and specialized work,
few people can do it well, even fewer can do it both well and _fast_
enough to make a commercial go of it and, like any skilled work, must
charge appropriately for their time and materials.

This can add up very fast to more than the average person can afford.
Throw in the cost of shipping (I had to pay $400 one-way to move a
piano I bought less than 30 miles due to stairs on the seller's end)
and restoration costs can run into the thousands in a big hurry.
Unless there is a local technician (not the case in may locales) making
house-calls, then even a relatively minor problem with an instrument
will turn into a significant expense if the piano has to be shipped
long distances and/or the technician paid to travel to the instrument
for repairs.

Please note:  I am _not_ in any way disparaging the prices that
qualified restorers charge for quality work.  That is just economic
reality of hiring skilled work.  You get what you pay for.  But it also
means that only those people of more affluent means can afford to hire
them.

Ah you say, but "why not avail yourself of some of the excellent books
and this fine forum to get your questions answered and just do it
yourself?  After all, player pianos are practically or literally free
in the classified ads!"

I have seen this premise put forward in these very pages many times.
This is the method that I have personally gone with, and I am enjoying
it immensely.  But, for valid reasons, even this is out of reach of
most people.

"But why?" you might ask.  I'm glad you did, and I can answer that
question with three words:  Lack of Tools.  I have restored one player
piano thus far, and am now partially working my way through the second.
In order to accomplish the first restoration (a very decrepit 1910
Melville Clark Apollo) I needed the use of the following power tools:
table saw, band saw, router table, drill press, milling machine,
jointer, disc sander, belt sander, and lathe.

Add in all the requisite blades, bits, belts, tooling, and the like,
and this represents a formidable and _very_ expensive collection of
tools.  At the time I did not have all of these myself (and still lack
some), but was quite fortunate to have family and friends that did and
were willing to share with me.  I am needing nearly all of these tools
again with the second restoration underway now.  These tools actually
seem to be the basics for this type of work.

Sadly, however, it is a small minority of people today, especially
young people, that have access to this type of equipment and actually
know how to use it.  (The lack of shop classes in high schools today --
and even going back to the 1990s when I was in high-school -- teaching
people how to work with wood and metal, is another topic for another
day, but it is certainly germane to this topic.)

Simply put, without access to a well-supplied shop, restoration of a
mechanical instrument is essentially impossible for the even the most
enthusiastic do-it-yourselfer.  How is a typical person living in an
apartment/condo/townhouse/shared-living/parent's basement situation
ever supposed to be able to assemble a suitable shop to do this kind
of work?

Note that the above doesn't even mention the array of hand tools
required, nor the even less common piano-specific tools that cannot
be purchased at a local hardware store, or even on-line in most cases
without a Schaff's account.  I was again fortunate to be able to
borrow, buy, or was given these tools from older restorers that
appreciated my willingness to learn and were happy to further my
progress with the correct equipment. But this experience is an
exception, not the rule.

Question: how many of the older collectors on this forum, or generally
speaking, have opened their shops, loaned their tools, or otherwise
made a point of assisting a younger enthusiast work their way through
a restoration?  I hope there are many.  But, any of those who have not
made this effort, in my view, have no grounds to complain about
declining interest among the young or a reduction in market values for
their collection.

I myself benefited greatly from the guidance of the late Mr. Dean
Randall, who did everything he could to assist with my initial
restoration and to make sure I only did things correctly, from the
moment I dragged home the derelict Apollo, until the end of his life.
For that kindness and invaluable assistance I will _forever_ be
grateful.

And he certainly isn't the only one that has helped tremendously with
my restoration efforts.  There are a number of truly wonderful and
generous people I have met through this hobby that have shared more
with me than I could ever hope to repay in kind.

But on the other hand...  I won't get into details of other folks
I have had experiences with on the opposite end of the spectrum, but
suffice it to say that not everyone has been nearly as helpful or kind.
Folks like that, if they treat everyone the way they treated me, are
doing more to kill this hobby than anything else.  But, if this field
had had more Dean Randalls around through the years, willing to freely
share their knowledge, experience and tools with the younger
enthusiasts of the day, then the future of the hobby might look rosier
than it does today.

As to the improving big-picture economic outlook that is enabling
people all over to upgrade cars and houses:  Sure, the market for those
is picking up.  But, it is easy to make the case that an automobile or
a house is a necessity.  It is doubtful anyone could make a logical
case that a mechanical music instrument is anything more than a luxury
item.  And, most people who buy houses and cars get loans from 5-30
years to pay for them.  Any automatic musical instruments one buys will
have to be paid for in-cash, out of pocket.

If someone finds an instrument that at one time would have sold for
$30,000 but today is "only" $10,000, that money still has to be
available to the buyer to spend in a lump sum.  No bank will finance
the purchase of a Mills Violano, no matter the enthusiasm of the
prospective purchaser.  Better-established people, and the affluent
might be able to come up with that much cash on hand to occasionally
buy something like that, but most of us just simply cannot afford that
kind of money on an instrument of any kind.  I have been told about
'good deals' on several instruments that I have long been interested
in, but had to pass up because, even at prices considerably lower than
in years past, they are still beyond my means.

My interest and enthusiasm are there, the means and the willingness to
learn to correctly restore, operate, and maintain an instrument are
certainly there, but the cash to bring them home simply is not.  And so
I must decline these opportunities and let them go to someone of less
modest means than me.  Perhaps the day will come when my income catches
up to my interest but unless/until it does, I am content to go without.
And I believe that sums up the situation for most of the
"disinterested" younger people today.

On the very bright side of things, however, there are still a few
younger people (30-somethings) interested, and there are definitely
some older folks out there making a difference to ensure that the
legacy lives on, even if the sky-high prices of the past do not.  Two
wonderful retired MMD readers both _gave away_ fully functioning
upright player pianos to friends of mine with small children.  As such,
seven little kids under age 10 are all growing up with foot-pumped
players in the house.  One of these friends has since bought an
additional player (an unrestored Ampico Symphonique) that I spent the
long Memorial Day weekend in May restringing in preparation for the
AMPICO to be fully restored later this year.

Another friend, younger than me, was so intrigued by the spring motor
in my Apollo player that he bought an Apollo to restore himself.  He
has also bought Reblitz's books, a glue pot, a number of tools, and is
availing himself of my shop to do his restoration.  He and his wife
have an infant son that will also grow up with automatic music.  He is
also a motorcycle restorer, a mechanical engineer, and completely
dedicated to the premise that this piano must be restored with only the
correct materials and techniques.

My cousin bought a fully functioning Farrand 88-note player some years
ago, and now she and her husband have a 4-year-old son that is growing
up with that instrument playing in the house.  These are precisely the
sort of individuals that needs to be encouraged: adults in their 20s to
40s with stable jobs and steady income.

Because, let's face it: even the most enthusiastic of small children
today have not the ability to own/restore/maintain something as complex
as an 80+ year old instrument.  We need more interested people in their
20s-40s to get into this hobby today to keep it alive for the next few
decades.  But they will only be as involved as they can afford to be.

Keep things affordable, share the necessary tools and knowledge to do a
proper restoration with those who are interested, and perhaps these
instruments will still be treasured in the next hundred or more years.

Just my thoughts.

Troy Taylor
Edmonds, Washington