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Warm greetings to MMD readers across the world, many whom I have met
in the past, others that I hope to meet in the future.  As President
of Theriault's I thought I would share some information about a very
important event being held this weekend in Morristown, New Jersey,
and the opportunity it may hold.

I am not a historian by nature as so many of you are.  By contrast
my expertise is in that of the psyche -- and thus the market -- for
collectibles.  Growing up in the auction field I have spent decades
analyzing the movements of collectors amidst the never-ending changes
in the landscape of the market.  I have learned a great deal (some
of it the hard way!) and over these years have worked to share with
collectors around the world through lectures and articles my
experiences and analysis so as to help them unlock a lifetime of joy
and opportunity for their respective hobby, be it in dolls, toys,
mechanical music or automata.

Over the past few years many of you have witnessed a current cycle of
boom that comes about in certain areas of collecting every 15-20 years.
It is a proven occurrence historically.  These booms are typically
created by a number of factors, the primary of which can be attributed
to large amounts of money being thrust into the market by a usually
small group of burgeoning collectors who are eager, fresh, and looking
to build world-class collections in a very short period of time.

During the boom periods these "new" collectors can at times control 75%
of the auction market as one example.  What is so surprising, however,
is that they often only make up 5% of the true collector base.

Markets will naturally grow over time; this is, after all, the healthy
growth we search for in desiring new collectors to protect our
investments.  But, the 20-year boom cycle is one that can actually have
reverse effects over the long-term in alienating many collectors who
are left with the feeling that their hobby is "passing them by."

This has certainly been the case of late.  Last year we held an auction
in which records were shattered across the board, and while this can
be exciting to watch, and a great windfall for the lucky consignors of
these items, the "hangover" it creates can be heard in a resounding
frustration of those in the hobby who had been long-time clients, avid
collectors, and part of the great mosaic of the organic growth of
collecting.  These were the common phrases heard over the months to
follow: "I am priced out," "I can't afford the pieces now that I really
aspire to," "My collecting has evolved, but apparently my wallet can't
keep up anymore."

So, the fallout of these boom cycles is this hangover in which the
shell-shocked majority of the market roams about without a real sense
of purpose.  It can be almost zombie-like.  Some may sell-out, others
look for new areas of collecting, and still others may drop away
completely.  That is, until the day comes, as it always does, when the
sky clears and we see that this was all just temporary.  Markets will
level ­- and a more spread out playing field will develop once again.
The first collectors who awake for this "dawning" are the one's who
reap the benefits of a robust selection of items that lay in waiting
to a still sleepy competition.

Clearly, that moment is upon us now, and if ever there is a mantra for
this new day in collecting automata and mechanical music it would be
the age old adage: "no guts, no glory."

Great collections are built over time and combine the following
hallmarks: patience, longevity, knowledge, and moxie.  These four
traits are the foundation for every great collector.  Sure, a filled
bank account can be beneficial, but I can tell you it is not everything:
I have seen great collections built from little in the way of capital
-- and awful collections built from millions.  Use the four traits
mentioned above and you will certainly one day reach a level in your
collecting that even you may not have imagined.

This weekend, for those who have these traits in place, and are awake
at the dawn of this new time in the market -- as it does not take much
to realize that the boom cycle has indeed "wound down" -- will reap
the rewards of patience, longevity, knowledge, and moxie.  Patience in
waiting for the markets to settle: they have.  Longevity in not turning
away from the hobby with the thought they would forever be priced out:
they have not.  Knowledge in recognizing the great pieces that will now
be available at approachable prices: they are here.  And the moxie to
go forward when others are still asleep: they won't be for long.

Jerry and Bunny Steinbaum were such collectors, and this weekend in
Morristown, NJ, you can see first-hand at the auction of their pieces
the unlimited potential of what great collectors can achieve.  Even
better, you have the opportunity to bid and buy amidst one of the
finest offerings of automata and mechanical music ever presented on
the U.S. market.  And I can assure you that opportunities will abound.

Happy Collecting,
Stuart Holbrook
President, Theriault's

P.S. You can view the catalog online, get more details on the event
(such as the "all-are-welcome" Saturday evening wine reception in which
all of the pieces will be displayed and wound, and even view the music
and movements of 18 of the 160 pieces being offered by going to
http://www.theriaults.com/