In terms of declining prices for mechanical musical instruments, as a
previous post noted, it is holding true across the entire antique and
collectibles market.  I am not sure how much of this is due to the
economy, to the advent and popularity of eBay, or to other issues which
effect the market, such as supply and demand.

The nature of the antique business has really changed in the last ten
years or so.  Many items that were once hot, rare, and saleable are
difficult to sell right now.  With eBay and the Internet, things that
may be rare locally are usually easily available and yes, many times
there are multiples of the item available.  For the collector, this is a
bonanza, but this has really hit shops and show dealers hard.  I know
that my shows have really taken a nose-dive in the past several years.

Another huge change is the buyer of today.  Today's buyer does not
always have the same interests and taste as yesterday's collector.  This
is very evident in the shift in what is hot today versus what was hot
twenty years ago.  Cut glass, pattern glass, hanging kerosene lamps,
walnut furniture, Haviland, some carnival glass patterns are a few
examples of things that have not appreciated in value and may
have become difficult to sell.

Collections of mechanical musical instruments, sometimes very large
collections, are coming onto the market.  More is available than before,
and if there are fewer buyers, this is going to cause price and
liquidity issues.  A huge problem with any mechanical musical instrument
is the cost of restoration.  Virtually none of these instruments are
playing on original power, and most of the time it can be a huge problem
to find someone locally who really knows these instruments well and can
get them playing the way that they are supposed to play.  If you want an
instrument to play as it was designed to play, it becomes extremely
expensive to get the instrument to that point.  This is true of the less
expensive instruments as well as the expensive ones.

Today's buyer can find brand new computerized pianos for less than it
costs to bring an old instrument up to snuff.  The quality of today's
recorded music and playback technology has improved dramatically.  Fully
electronic pianos can sound pretty good.  But there will always be a
market for automatic musical instruments.  There are people who want the
"real thing"; otherwise, we would all buy music CD's.

I do not see a demise of the entire industry, but there may be some
tough times ahead until all of the above stabilizes.

Randy Hammond