I think there is an unrealistic view about some of the more expensive
instruments.  They were never remotely in reach of youngsters, or even
(when new) the majority of adults.  The so-called "high-end" instruments
were not even sold to individuals but were industrial nickel-grabbers,
where a commercial rate-of-return calculation could be used to figure
if the investment was worthwhile.

Reproducing grand pianos cost vast sums of money in the 1920s.  In the
UK you could buy a rather nice new 3-bedroom semi-detached house for
half the price of a Duo-Art grand.  Now the piano would fetch perhaps
0.5% of that house.  Reproducing pianos were _not_ a good investment
when new -- why do we think they should be investments now?

The mechanical music collecting hobby has developed over the last
50 years or so.  As with all things, there was a period when these
instruments went through that dangerous age after becoming secondhand
junk but before becoming old enough to be collectable.

The nadir was probably the post-war decade.  That's when legendary
hoards of junk instruments were built up for insignificant sums.  On
the whole, they seem to have gone to folks who had memories of their
heyday some 20-30 years earlier (think about collecting 1970s stuff
today and you have the picture).  They were the ones who seeded our
hobby, writing the books and founding the societies in the late 1950s
and early 1960s that brought in the next generation.

But all that's history!  It was a one-off and won't recur.  The present
source of instruments is different, and the buyers are different.  If
you assume there is some distribution of people naturally interested
in mechanical music, the 1960s and 1970s were when the new societies
extended their "reach" to these easy targets.  As the market grew
prices rose from the low-point.  Then growth and prices levelled out as
the natural "reach" was met, with a few glitches such as the short-lived
Japanese excursion into the hobby.

The worry today is dropping numbers.  Is this because the natural reach
is truly dropping, or because interested parties have not been reached?
Time means that very few enthusiasts are those who had these instruments
from new, removing personal nostalgia as a reason for collecting.  New
entrants must like the instruments for what they are rather than the
memories they evoke, which could well reduce the number of such
interested parties.

Someone will only enter the hobby today when they have an opportunity
to do so, and if they want to take up this opportunity.  One reason for
the not-so-young average age of many first-time buyers is that they
simply never got the opportunity when younger.  I meet quite a lot of
people who "always wanted one of these but never had the chance to buy
one".  I suspect that there are plenty of potential enthusiasts who
haven't been reached.

I also suspect that the average age of first purchase is pretty much
the same today as it ever was, or even lower.  If potential buyers
range in age from 20 to 70 (or 10 and 80, if you want), and there is
a completely even spread of opportunity across those years, you'd
expect the average age of a first-time buyer to be 45.  (Okay, so
it's a tendentious argument, but I hope you get the general drift).

For things where price, housing, family, space, et cetera, is a
consideration, the practical buying range edges upwards.  I'd expect
that most newcomers would be in their 30s or older; lack of teenager
buyers isn't really surprising or worrying, although I'd hope they were
getting interested.

The challenge to all interested parties is the twofold one of
increasing the number of opportunities, and increasing the take-up of
those opportunities.  As an example of the latter, a friend today said
that he purchased an Orchestrelle only because Richard Vance's MMD
articles gave him confidence that he could make it work.

Given the competition for leisure money and time, raising the profile
of mechanical music is hard.  Occasional free publicity will arise,
such as Joplin's music got in the movie, "The Sting", and should be
capitalised on.  Organ rallies, concerts, etc., may reach a few people
already with a vague interest.  I'd expect a very low return for effort
for unfocussed efforts such as (say) taking player pianos round schools,
although these efforts may pay long-term dividends.

I tend to believe that there are plenty of unreached potential buyers
for these instruments out there, so we must find them and then draw
them in.  When we tried advertising the UK Player Piano Group some 10
years back as numbers dropped, we distributed leaflets to museums and
restorers and increased membership by 50% in three years.  It's
continued to grow slowly.  People _are_ out there!

However, the hobby and the societies that promote it must earn the
loyalty of enthusiasts by offering them what they want, and must be
prepared to adapt to modern expectations (without losing the point,
of course).  There are all sorts of ways to go wrong: a familiar one is
moaning about how "things aren't as good as they used to be" or rigidly
sticking to old thinking, subjects or attitudes, all which guarantees
increasing irrelevance as an old fogies' forum that simply alienates
the youngsters it so wants to attract!

Julian Dyer
Age 40, and (worryingly) editor of the PPG Bulletin for 12 years now.