Hi Folks,  As many of you already know, for the past forty years, Betty
and I have been collectors of the finest mechanical musical items that
were could afford.  In the past few years, we have concentrated on huge
European orchestrions that were a "steal" until the introduction of the
euro currency.  Now prices are much higher.  But still we have over 300
items in our collection, with 22 European orchestrions, etc., in Canada
undergoing restoration.

We have collected over 500 nice mechanical music items in the past 50
years.  Fortunately for us all, the Japanese buying between 1988 and
1992 was a source of "top prices +" for US sales.  On the down side,
asking prices by US collectors went sky high until about 1996.  They
have now returned to near normal (or below) for most items but some
are still very high.

Unfortunately, the bubble burst for all of us around 1993.  Until
then, the Japanese were buying everything in sight with 10% down
(except for mechanical music).  In Japan, industrialist were getting
100% loans for factories, etc., and then defaulting on the 10% deposit
on US purchases.

In 1993, four major banks were investigated by the Japanese government
and required to call in all non-collateral loans.  There were billions
of dollars to be recovered; a few examples include the 700 million
dollar purchase of the Pebble Beach Golf Course; 500 million for
Rockefeller Center in New York; over 160 million for art works in New
York; billions of land purchases in Hawaii, all with defaulted 10% down
deposits.  The Japanese economy fell like a rock from then until recent
years when they are began to recover.  In 2002, the Japanese government
"wrote off" an additional 39 billion dollars in no-collateral loans
from the early 1990s.

We had several major mechanical music buyers in Japan in the 1990s.
They were both described to me as the "Donald Trumps of Japan."  Both
are now broke with millions in back taxes due the city of Osaka, Japan.
What does this all mean?  With 33 fully stocked mechanical music
museums in Japan, none of us can count on the Japanese market for
purchases at inflated prices ever again.

Now back to the last five years of reality!  In my humble opinion,
_very few_ new, young collectors are interested in Mechanical Music.
As a long-standing member of many of the collector's societies, as
members die, no one is taking their places.  Others are just losing
interest and dropping out.  Restorers are retiring and many are passing
away after a wonderful life with mechanical music.  Is anyone taking
their places?

Collectors who pass away are flooding the auction market with
wonderful pieces, depressing the prices for all collectors' items.
As we all heard from the Christian Bailey's automaton auction,
extremely rare items continue to bring top dollar.  Over $2,000,000
dollars was realized from this recent Nevada auction.  As for Betty's
and my collection, we have benefited by purchasing items at 15%-25% of
their restored values.  Of course, another 20% is usually needed to
put the item in wonderful playing condition.

In one case, we obtained a 6-foot Welte reproducer grand from an estate,
with 70 playable rolls.  We were invited to just "come and haul it
away."  It had been totally restored by experts just a few year before.
It plays beautifully in our collection after being tuned.  In the 'good
old days' we was able to trade or sell such instruments for $15,000 to
$19,000 with a dozen rolls.  If this continues into the future, what
will become of mechanical music?  How are your sales of reproducer
pianos, and even carved art-case Steinways?

I first heard about Ken Caulkins and Ragtime Automated Music in 1970.
(Back then, a double Mills Violano was selling for $1,000 -- take your
pick at George McKinnon's shop in North Carolina.)  At that time, I
purchased a bass and snare drum with beaters from Ragtime of California
for a new built-up "O" roll orchestration.  The drum heads, with
aluminum pneumatics, were absolutely horrible.  Perhaps like many of
you in those days, I vowed _never again_ to purchase anything from
Ragtime and Ken Caulkins.  The drum heads still hang on my shop wall,
after 35 years, as a reminder.

A year ago, I noticed interesting mechanical musical items on eBay,
complete with lots of 10-tune rolls, no reserves and extraordinarily
low selling prices.  They were by Ragtime West, e.g., Ken Caulkins.
I could not believe the incredible sound from the instruments as
delivered from eBay via my computer into my Dolby 5.1 music system.
I had recently purchased a very similar instrument at 10 times the
price, from another well-known quality mechanical music builder.
When I cautiously ordered the automatic guitar (my first item from
Ken in 35 years), I was promised "the sound would duplicate the sounds
I heard on e-Bay."  So, for a few bucks more, I added a MIDI system
filled with music files.  The instrument is absolutely wonderful and is
played every day, unlike the other 300 items in our collection.  In the
meantime, many of Ken's latest creations have appeared as grand showcase
prizes on "The Price Is Right," an Emmy-winning daytime TV show.

While on business in this area, Ken recently visited in our home, to
"be sure the instrument was performing as it should."  Since all of
Ken's instruments are serviceable by beginners without tools, we
already had it performing perfectly.  We were so pleased with this
single guitar instrument that we ordered another with three stringed
instruments.  All four instruments will play together through a MIDI
cabling system or from rolls when delivered soon.

As I quickly discovered, Ragtime West can custom build instruments to
most specifications and cabinets styles.  As your particular tastes
range up to collector specification, the cost only slightly increases
above the basic unit.  Ken's new "collector's line" is incredible as
are the very low prices.

Yes, Ken still uses some plastic parts _but_ he now has his own
plastics molding shop.  Gone are the days when Ken's plastic items
(made previously by local suppliers) would crack and become brittle
as they get older.  Ken's modern plastics are state of the art and
extremely durable.  For example, the pluckers for his stringed
instruments are thin plastic that would have lasted a week in 1970.
We now have about 100,000 plucks on my instrument without a single
problem.  Ken says they "will last for more than 1,000,000 plucks."
Early failures are rare and if any, are replaced at no charge.  Anyone
can replace a stringed instrument plucker "in two seconds" without
tools.  If you lean on Ken a little, he will give you a supply of
replaceable parts to last a lifetime.

Now to the real reason I am writing my soap box opinion of the future
of mechanical music.  Perhaps I can do this with a series of thought
provoking questions?  Agreement and counter-comments on the MMD are
expected and urged.  (At age 70, I hope the "younger set" stands up
and proves me wrong. ):

a. How many old timers, both collectors and restorers, have gone to
their "rewards" in the past five (5) years?

b. How many youngsters have stepped in to take their places, in both
collecting of the antique items and performing their restorations?

c. With the current economy, how many "wonderful, restored items in
your collection" have you sold or traded for more than you have
invested?  (Remember to match "yesterday's money with today's.)

d. When did you sell or trade (in the past few years) any wonderful
Steinway or other grand piano with Ampico, Duo-Art, Reproduco or Welte
mechanism for anywhere near what you had invested?  (The days of
Japanese buying at $125,000 to $200,000 for a Steinway Duo-Art, their
favorite, are _gone forever._)

e. How many modern mechanical musical creations by the Germans and
a few wonderful American builders, have you purchased in the past
few years?  Prices range from $45,000 to $175,000 in the US and from
$225,000 to $400,000 in Germany.  I can count on one hand (and have
fingers left over) the number of older, well-heeled collectors who can
afford these prices, right?  How many folks under the age of 40 who you
know have made these purchases?  And you don't even need fingers or
toes to count!  How many collectors under the age of 40 do you know
that have paid in this range for antique instruments?

Many of you have known Ken Caulkins and his business since it started.
Until recent years, "Caulkins bashing" had become a full-time sport
on MMD.  In most cases, the comments were ancient history (over 25
years old by disenchanted collectors) or based on incorrect information
or those jealous of Ken's talents.  In the start-up years of Ken's
business, if you spent $10 dollars, you got $10 dollars in value.
Today, if you spend $10 dollars, you get $100 in value.  Trust me!
Many of you know me and how "picky and cautious" I (my wife) is on
purchases.

In my humble opinion, the future of mechanical music lies in creations
such as Ken Caulkins is producing today, i.e., wonderful sounds,
reliable, $100 in value for each $10 dollars spent, beautiful case work
(if you wish), _affordable for all_, etc., etc., and made with easily
replaceable parts if and when they wear.  Would I have bought Ken's
items 35 years ago?  Very, very, very unlikely.  Let's be thankful that
after we are gone (and lost our shirts on the antique stuff), there is
an economical, rewarding choice for future generations in mechanical
music.  Otherwise, in my humble opinion, mechanical music will die just
like so many other wonderful items of the past.

(Any direct responses, to <cotps@aol.com>, please! )

Respectfully submitted by a "senile old-timer",

Rick and Betty Cooley,
Delaware
http://members.aol.com/cotps